In October of 2009, I made a list of what I thought might be outcomes of the economic collapse in the U.S. on landscape/land use planning. Which of these has come true? I think it depends on where you live. Here are my 2009 guesses:
Land use effects of a weak economy
- A near halt to new construction, residential and commercial, dramatically slowing land consumption at the urban fringe
- A slower pace(?) to urban infill; foreclosures creating abandoned neighborhoods
- Rise in the number of renter-occupied structures/neighborhoods
- A reversal of gentrification trends in some city neighborhoods
- A wave of new dead malls and other grayfield sites, especially as retail contracts
- Cheaper land prices – which could help efforts by land trusts, although it looks like their boom is over too
- In rural areas, land conversion halted – a chance to re-think agriculture?
- Fewer areas of second home development. Potentially land abandonment, like second home owners in foreclosure
- In desperate attempts to appear “business-friendly,” communities give away the store – sacrificing, neglecting, pillaging the qualities of place that
could have otherwise enhanced their chances of survival - The need to re-examine large-lot zoning given the collapse of rampant development. Which communities will allow cluster development now?
- A focus on green retrofits rather than wholly new green construction
- Local governments rethinking all basic services – including parks
- Infrastructure costs need to be contained
- Opportunity for more shared services across jurisdictional boundaries; collaboration between local govt and local businesses
Planning/design consequences
- Desire for plans increased; desire to control/guide community destiny
- Planning/design implementation funding is lacking – future funding uncertain
- Mixed reception to visioning exercises – Desire to create positive change, but pessimism over future?
- Value of community-building design implementation efforts high, if funding can be found
- Need for creative vision – no more planning as maintainer of status quo
- Green, livable community strategies still sought; local governments seek to differentiate themselves from their neighbors
- Need to demonstrate relationship between good planning/design and economic development
And some questions about what landscape architects can contribute
How can the planning/design process reveal possibilities that might not otherwise be seen? How can visualization techniques build broad community support for actions that contribute to community survival, community resilience?
UPDATE: One factor that I did not consider in 2009 is that the federal government would embrace deficit reduction in the way it has, leading to the virtual abandonment of state and local governments in a time of need. The massive layoffs of local government employees, including teachers, was something that I did not see coming. Like many other progressives, I hope to see this reversed, accompanied by infrastructure investment.
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